At each of the major technological turning points of history, there has been a palpable sense of ‘oh no, have we opened Pandora's box?’. In the wake of the question, there is usually one or more calamitous disasters, mass unemployment, social disintegration, war, suffering, and a sprinkle of death.
This, I know, is a cynical view. But one that is, by and large, historically accurate. The good news is that after all these horrific things take place, society tends to overcome the poorly planned, but well-intended blunders that were inevitably hijacked by greed. Kinda.
‘Steel And Steam’ So The Sheep’s Plead
The Industrial Revolution began in Britain during the 18th century and spawned the bedrock of what we would consider modern civilization. Through the power of the steam engine, the spinning jenny, and other inventions, large-scale manufacture of goods was made possible. And with this came the promise of a bold new dawn where things would change for the better. People, through the power of technology, would become more efficient.
And by and large, they were. Quality of life goods such as shoes, clothes, and other household products became cheaper. Agricultural production rose to an all-time high, technology excelled at a rapid pace, and brand-new professions began to emerge.
The story may sound hopeful and familiar. However, the lived experience in this brave new world was on par with a burn victim being waterboarded by vinegar. In other words, Dickensian.
Wherefore ‘art Thou Faustus?
You see with the advent of new technology; no longer did you need the skilled and learned work of artisans. The playing field had been levelled. Gone were the days of troublesome craftsmen dictating the value of their goods. Factories could produce improved versions en masse and at a far lower unit cost. And better yet, the workforce, far from being skilled, was dispensable.
This is, of course, something we are seeing in the modern world as large companies begin making people redundant. One of many such examples is BT, who have outlined their plans to replace 55,000 jobs with AI by 2030. In fact, a study by the Institute of Public Policy Research suggests that by 2030 advancements in AI could claim nearly 8 million jobs.
And if you ask me, the estimate is conservative. I don’t think the report fully factors in the impacts you are going to see wholesale in the creative industries. I also think the report doesn’t really take into account how AI will be coupled with emerging technologies such as robotics and quantum computing.
After all, it is no secret that nearly every country in the developed world has, and continues to accumulate unsustainable national debt. A fact that has resulted in unsuccessful attempts to balance cuts to public expenditure against the needs of the populace. This, combined with an aging population and a growing aversion to immigration, means there is now both the need and technology to fix the problem. For a price.
I both foresee and fear a complete mutation of the public sector, in which nothing will be spared. Not too long from now, medical appointments will be conducted by AI – something already in its infancy. Social care of the elderly will occur through the sort of robotics emerging in Japan. Policing personnel numbers will be reduced, propped up by the sort of AI driven surveillance systems you see in China. Public transportation will be driverless. Teaching will slip further into remote learning. Make no mistake, there will be a seismic change to the more than 5.9 million (2023) people employed in the UK public sector. Indeed, according to the findings of a recent government think tank, an estimated 250,000 jobs could be eliminated through the implementation of basic AI capabilities.
If History Is To Repeat Itself, One Ought To Pucker Oneself
However, the biggest issue of this 'glorious' technological revolution will not be mass unemployment. Despite what ‘the Musk’ would have you believe, the concept of work will not become antiquated. Like the industrial revolution, there will be a surge of new industries and professions, even if we can’t put our finger on them right now. We are like the blacksmiths and stable hands wondering what will become of us now that the car has been invented and nobody needs horses.
No, the big issue and the one you won’t see coming until you are out there living it, is the return of Dickensian living standards.
You see, when large volumes of the national workforce are upended and made redundant, a power imbalance is created between the employer and the employee. Overnight, the employee becomes disposable. After all, the thing that determines your salary is the demand for your unique ability, skill set, and training. When AI makes those defining characteristics irrelevant, you can no longer demand but plead.
In this instance, the impact is far more profound because the people who will be made redundant by the end of this decade won’t be from lower-skilled, lower-wage jobs. They will be people from established professions with specialised degrees. The kind of people with mortgages, loans, and financial commitments, who, when hit with financial ruin, bring down institutions. They are typically the kind of people who have never had to live on the breadline and will not cope with the lifestyle changes it entails.
The Economic Future Powered By AI
Now, as I said, this won’t be forever. But it will be for a while. After all, how long after the rise of the internet was it before IT became a well-paying sector capable of employing a sufficient number of people? 10, 15 years? Of course, the scale of job losses is not comparable; AI will take substantially more.
The terrible irony of it all is the inevitable collapse in government tax revenue caused by AI will expedite public sector reform into AI, which will in turn precipitate further decline. Tragically, I think we will walk willingly into this crisis with our eyes open and minds shut.
The biggest victim of this sea change will be Generation Z, who are, as we speak, being trained and educated for a version of the world that is about to die. The expectation of graduating and walking into a job will be a fantasy. Barring a few forward-looking degrees, I suspect most graduates will find themselves in a position in which they hold immaterial qualifications, possess negligible experience, and consequently have a lack of transferable skills. In essence, they will be the ones with the least bargaining power after the recalibration of the employment landscape. They will be the ones left to contend with the uncertain economic future brought forth by AI.
Our Sources:
BT to cut up to 55,000 jobs by 2030 as fibre and AI arrive | Reuters
Up to 8 million UK jobs at risk from AI unless government acts, finds IPPR | IPPR
‘If you’re poor, you’ll get a computer, and if you’re rich, a human doctor' (inews.co.uk)
Inside Japan’s long experiment in automating eldercare | MIT Technology Review
AI ‘can replace 250,000 public sector workers’ | UKAuthority
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